February 9th, 2016
Update: Open thread: The battle for New Hampshire’s silver medal. The moment the polls closed the races were called for Trump and Sanders. Trump can only hope that penniless and organization-less Kasich comes in second. Barbara Bush coming in third would be a dream come true for Trump too.
We have exclusive video of Marco Rubio at home:
But seriously folks, here’s some information on people who voted for Boob Obama and after they sobered up will now vote for Donald Trump:
Farmington, New Hampshire (CNN)Eight years after they drew inspiration from Barack Obama’s insurgent campaign, some of the very voters who helped elect the first African-American president are standing behind a candidate whose image and message are strikingly different: Donald Trump.
Obama campaigned on themes of hope and change; Trump declared in his June announcement speech that the American Dream was dead. Obama called on the country to shed racial divisions; some of Trump’s biggest applause lines are his pledge to build a wall on the Mexican border and ban Muslim immigration. Obama is a gifted orator with a cool and intellectual demeanor; Trump is an improviser with a knack for dramatic flair.
But at Trump’s rallies in New Hampshire days ahead of the first-in-the-nation primary, it’s not too difficult to find ex-Obama supporters in the crowds. These individuals say they are once again drawn to the promise of change. But the version they’re seeking now is grounded less on optimistic idealism, and more on something harder and angrier: sheer strength and force of will.
Gary Chagnon, a machinist from Barnstead, voted for Obama in both 2008 and 2012. He recently submitted an absentee ballot for Trump, and said he was drawn to Trump’s slogan, “Make America Great Again.”
“We don’t need hope and change,” Chagnon, 50, said. “We need somebody with a set of balls, so to say.”
Chagnon’s wife, Annette, also supported the President twice, and this time plans to vote for Trump. A 51-year-old working in the shipping industry, Annette said she doesn’t feel the country is safe and cast blame on Obama.
“He’s a little too lax on our borders. I don’t think he’s paid enough attention to that and it contributes to us having homegrown people coming in and killing us,” she said. “I don’t like it and I like that Trump is right on that.” [snip]
The support Trump is drawing from independents and even voters who have tended to vote for Democrats in the past exemplifies the non-traditional nature of the real estate mogul’s campaign. And that support could prove to be critical for Trump here in a state with an outsized bloc of independent voters.
Many independent voters who supported Obama in 2008 quickly turned on him after he took office, frustrated over the state of the economy and in many cases disenchanted by Obama’s signature health care law. After winning 52% of independents in the 2008 general election, Obama trailed Mitt Romney among independents four years later, 45% to 50% (Obama won New Hampshire both cycles).
In the final stretch of Obama’s two-term tenure in the White House, national security concerns, including the threat of ISIS and the flow of undocumented immigrants and refugees into the country, are increasingly pronounced. [snip]
Amid heightened concern about national security, voters are looking for not only a change in direction but also a shift in tone. Trump, with his no-apologies attitude and brash rhetoric, is appealing to those desires.
Chris Hickey, a retired Army veteran from Wolfeboro, is an independent who voted for Obama in 2008 and Romney in 2012. This year, he’s most likely to vote for Trump, whom Hickey called a “no nonsense” candidate.
“He’s a little rough around the edges at times but I think he’ll do a good job,” he said. “One of the things I don’t like about President Obama — he’s always apologizing, it seems to me, for the United States. And I don’t think Trump will do those things.”
The sentiment isn’t limited to New Hampshire.
We’ve discussed why Trump is popular with the working class. When retired elementary school teachers at the age of 70 cast their votes for a Republican for the first time ever, something’s up. The partner of said elementary school teacher says “I feel totally betrayed,” by Obama. “If we don’t see a Trump in this Oval Office, I don’t think this country will survive to see another election as the country we knew it and the country I fought for.” And that explains why even the mopes who voted for Obama now vote for Trump and don’t care about Trump’s “tone”.
The exit polls are already out. Little surprise on the GOP side:
Republican voters expressed deep worries about both the economy (three-quarters were very worried) and the threat of terrorism (6-in-10 very worried). About 9-in-10 said they were dissatisfied with the federal government, including about 4-in-10 who were angry about the way it was working. And for many, the dissatisfaction extends to the GOP itself. Half said they felt betrayed by politicians from the Republican Party, and about the same share said they wanted the next president to be from outside the political establishment.
Then there is this:
NEW: 2/3 of New Hampshire GOP voters favor temporarily banning Muslims who are not US citizens from entry, per preliminary exit poll results
Trump is expected to win tonight. Thanks to anti-Trump voters, Trump might get more votes that the votes Trump gets:
A lot of Republicans will head to the polls in New Hampshire on Tuesday, motivated to vote against Donald Trump.
But because of a quirk in how the state party allocates delegates and how fractured the “establishment” field is, it could mean that an anti-Trump vote will actually be a vote for the New York billionaire.
The state party awards delegates on a proportional basis to presidential candidates based on their vote statewide and by congressional district.
But it also has a 10 percent threshold.
What does that mean? It means that if a candidate does not get 10 percent of the vote, he gets no delegates. (And this is a hard threshold — no rounding.)
What’s more, not only do those underperforming candidates get no delegates, but whatever delegates they could have gotten based on their vote share go to the winner of the primary (!).
And, right now, the favorite is Trump.
Some estimates are that Trump might get 40% of his delegates from Trump haters.
On the Obama Dimocrat Party side, the electorate, via the exit poll, is different:
Though Democrats voting on Tuesday were less apt to say they felt betrayed by their party or to express anger with the federal government, about three-quarters said they were worried about the economy. About 4-in-10 said they thought life for the next generation of Americans would be worse than life today, and 9-in-10 said they thought the nation’s economy favored the wealthy.
Still, Democrats who went to the polls Tuesday — to vote in a race featuring two seasoned politicians — were more apt than Republicans to say they wanted the next president to have experience in politics, only about one-quarter said they preferred a president from outside the political establishment.
Tomorrow morning socialist Bernie Sanders will meet with race-baiter Al Sharpton. The Hillary hating New York Times predicts a Hillary “implosion” tonight. As to the rumors of a major Hillary2016 upheaval, we’ve made our feelings well known and will have a lot more to say if and when it happens. Will Hillary suffer a major defeat tonight? Will socialist Bernie Sanders win big tonight? We’ll be prudent and wait for the results because in New Hampshire unpredictable independents vote in big numbers.
As to the Republican side, we expect Trump to win. If Trump wins our post Iowa prediction will serve as our forecast. Our forecast is aided by the remarkably predictable events after Trump “lost” Iowa which Big Media still fails to understand.
Big Media has long predicted that if Trump lost Iowa he would slink away in a fury, unable to handle a loss. Big Media declared Trump was a “win” candidate and that if he lost Iowa Trump voters would flee Trump even if Trump himself did not flee from the race in a storm of fury and tears. But after Iowa, Trump’s supporters remained firm. Trump remained. Trump did not flinch. Trump has even said that if he loses in New Hampshire he still stays in the race. Big Media does not understand that Trump supporters are made of firm stuff and, like Mets fans, they understand that you win the World Series even though during the baseball season you lose many games.
As we wrote before the Iowa vote, the best results for Trump are a ten point or more victory with the governor candidates coming in very close to each other in a bunch, followed by Senators Robot and Cruz. This would provide Trump a divided opposition with each candidate harboring “break out” fever and thereby staying in the race until further humiliation at the hands of Trump, in South Carolina.
On the Dim side, Hillary can hope for a victory, however slim. It’s doubtful but possible. If Sanders wins by more than ten points – “Danger, Danger, Will Robinson.”
February 8th, 2016
Hillary2016 made the tragic decision to abandon the white working class that made her the #1 voter preference in 2008’s primaries. Hillary Clinton “won more Democratic primary votes than Obama did” in 2008 because of the white working class. These voters are abandoned by Hillary2016. So, as we noted last October, Donald Trump has walked away with the white working class vote, make that the working class vote, as easily as a bargain hunter picks through the “sale” bins in a near empty recession hit mall.
Think we’re nuts to declare Trump the Working Class Hero? Let’s look at what the Trump haters write about this.
First, Richard Lowry, a premier Trump hater:
The fact is that the Republican Party can’t be dependent on working-class voters at the same time that it’s default economic agenda has little to say to them. If Trump has opened up the space for a conversation in the GOP about how to connect with these voters and their concerns, then his carnival show will have had some significant upside. If he goes down and the Republican political class carries on as if nothing had happened and conservative pundits who have twisted themselves into knots to justify Trump go back to hewing to the verities of the 1980s, nothing will have been gained except a more entertaining primary season than usual.
That’s a warning from the right to the right wing about Trump’s connection to the working class and the need for the conservative wing to address the grievances of the working class not just feed the rich and hope tax cuts are enough.
Lowry was the editor of the “hate Trump” issue published by National Review. That is the view on Trump from the right. Because we are fair and balanced, here’s the kookdom of DailyKooks – worried about Trump and his appeal to the working class:
Donald Trump’s appeal to white working-class voters is something Democrats are going to have to grapple with if he becomes the Republican presidential nominee. We know that intuitively, and now Working America, the community affiliate of the AFL-CIO, has provided a more in-depth look at the challenge. The organization sent canvassers to talk to 1,689 people in white working-class communities in Pennsylvania and Ohio. The good news is that 53 percent of the people Working America talked to are undecided when it comes to presidential candidates. But there’s plenty of bad news:
Donald Trump was favored by more than a third of those who chose a candidate (38%), overwhelming all other Republican candidates (27% combined). Nearly the same number chose one of two Democratic candidates, Clinton (22%) or Sanders (12%).
While most of Trump’s support comes from the staunch Republican base, 1 in 4 Democrats who chose a candidate showed a preference for Trump. […]
Party loyalty did not determine candidate choice as much as expected. Of Trump partisans, 58% said they would support him even if he runs as an independent. Additionally, a small number of Trump supporters were considering a Democrat if Trump doesn’t end up on the ballot.
Good jobs/the economy, which is historically the priority concern of Working America constituents, remains the top issue among voters we talked with, at 27%, with homeland security and terrorism next (14%) and health care as the third most frequently cited priority (10%).
Immigration was the top issue for only 5% of all those canvassed, but for Trump supporters it was the third–most-important issue (cited by 14%), after good jobs/the economy (29%) and homeland security and terrorism (21%). Voters for whom immigration is the priority issue are often Trump partisans (48%), but overall, those who prioritize immigration are a relatively small number.
Additionally, canvassers encountered people whose first choice was Trump and whose second choice was either Bernie Sanders or Hillary Clinton.
Want to know why a billionaire is a working class hero? Go to 538, that anti-Trump swamp of Nate Silver’s delusions, masked with numbers. But don’t read Silver’s tin plated “analysis”. Read the comments, like this one from someone called Warren Dew:
One big problem for Mr. Gang of Eight Rubio and “Act of Love” Bush, as well as even possible flip-flopper Cruz: After the first 4 primaries, the race moves to the South.
Why is immigration so important down here?
Let’s look at a local mill town: Its population was about 90% white, 10% black, and almost all blue-collar. The carpet mills employed most of the male population and quite a few females, and support industries, like restaurants, gas stations, grocery stores, places that sold supplies that the mills used, etc. employed even more. As the mill had been around for about 30 years, most of the employees had slowly gained seniority, and their pay had increased; most earned between $15 to $25 per hour. The largest mill expanded about 10 years ago, but instead of directly hiring locals, it used temp services offering just barely over minimum wage. The town’s population began changing, first 5% immigrants, then 10%, until it peaked at 28% immigrants, who mostly speak spanish, require bi-lingual teachers in the schools, and haven’t assimilated into the local culture. In fact, the locals need to assimilate into theirs; many of the local restaurants closed, and mexican themed ones opened. Local markets have been replaced by conicerias. And every time the mills hired a new temp worker, they had a 50 something long-time worker train him, then found a reason to fire the older worker after 30 years on the job, or he was laid off, and they saved $10 per hour in wages. Meantime, the American worker had to either live off his savings, get an $8 per hour job at another mill thru the temp service, which is almost impossible when he is competing with young, healthy immigrants for the job, or draw unemployment while trying to find work at minimum wage as a cashier or fast food worker. After a brief transition, the local pot dealers (may they rest in peace; 2 were ruled suicides, one an unsolved murder when he was shot in the head, another left town after his wife’s head was blown off by an unknown assailant with a shotgun) were replaced with Los Zetas and El Chapo heroin and meth dealers, who don’t like each other very much. Then the Great Recession happened. A lot of the mills either closed or moved to China, and those jobs aren’t coming back. Now, there is this massive population of people who can’t speak english, have no jobs and nowhere to go, and are now depending on the people whose jobs they had taken for food stamps to feed their kids, government housing, and to pay the taxes to send their kids to school, while they continue to replace the older American workers who still have jobs at the mills that are still open.
Yes, there is a lot of anger and resentment among white (and black, for that matter) southern blue-collar workers. Establishment favorites Rubio and Bush will have a tough time getting the nomination, and Clinton has no chance of converting the South back to the Democrats, just due to that one issue. In fact, I wouldn’t be so sure that she can count on anything like the 93% of the black vote that Obama got. Most blacks work. Most are blue collar. And they have been hurt by immigration just as much as their white friends on the assembly line. I’m guessing that a real populist has a chance of converting 25% of the black vote to the Republican side.
To that comment, a commenter called Joan Crasto responded:
Warren Dew The same thing is happening in NYC construction, illegals from China and Mexico are taking the formerly UNION construction jobs which paid well and used be done by white, black and Hispanic American citizens. NYC is a santuary city, it is an abomination that the Democrats in this city and President Obama allowed this to happen by not enforcing the borders and getting rid of E-Verify. All of this accelerated after the financial crisis in 2008, even though the market for multi-million dollar condominums in Manhattan had grown exponentially. The blue collar construction workers who lost their jobs to these illegals are made [sic] as hell. I don’t doubt that many of them like what Trump is saying about controlling the borders. We are fed up in New York. This is going on all over the country. Democrats have taken these blue collar voters for granted and thrown them under the bus in favor of illegal immigrants who use borrowed or fake social security numbers….
The Prairie Fire we wrote about on the day of the Iowa vote has not been doused. Our predictions of Donald Trump wining race after race unto the nomination are still in play. If anything, others now echo what we wrote:
The Great GOP Realignment
Ted Cruz and Donald Trump may herald an historic working-class Republican revolt against the party establishment. [snip]
It’s easy to view this year’s Republican primary as a cult of personality and no more—the rise and fall of a colorful billionaire who stars in the greatest reality show on television. But what’s happening is much broader than Trump and Cruz. It’s an extension of a shift in Republican politics that’s been under way for several years. Although the media is portraying the outcome in Iowa as a repudiation of Trump, it’s better understood as a repudiation of the party establishment—just the latest in a series of uprisings dating to the 2010 election. At the congressional level, the GOP has already realigned itself to reflect this anger. Almost 60 percent of House Republicans were elected in 2010 or after. They’ve radicalized their party in Congress and driven out its establishment-minded speaker, John Boehner. [snip]
For all that the media fixated on Trump and Cruz, the Iowans I spoke to were more preoccupied with a litany of economic and cultural frustrations. The same complaints came up again and again—so did their antipathy toward their own party’s leaders in Washington, who, just about everyone agreed, had stopped listening to them entirely. “Out here in the cheap seats, those people are the ones that are our biggest enemy,” said Myron Brenner, 61, a heavy-equipment operator in Wallingford who caucused for Cruz. [snip]
While Trump didn’t prevail, his message did: Cruz, and even third-place finisher Marco Rubio, echoed the same dark themes of nativism, treachery, and corruption. Like Trump, Cruz presented himself as the savior of disaffected working-class Americans who are routinely sold out by a “Washington cartel” that encompasses the leaders of both parties. (In a sense, Cruz won by running as a pious Trump with a better turnout operation.) Rubio engineered his last-minute surge by abandoning the sunny “New American Century” pitch he’d been making for months and appealing to “all of us who feel out of place in our own country.” [snip]
As Patrick Buchanan, the former Nixon aide who won a 1996 New Hampshire primary upset by running as a populist proto-Trump, told the Washington Post: “The anger and alienation that were building then have reached critical mass now, when you see Bernie Sanders running neck and neck with Hillary Clinton in Iowa and New Hampshire and Trump and Ted Cruz with a majority of Republican voters. Not to put too fine a point on it, the revolution is at hand.”
The question now is what effect this revolution will have on the Republican Party. [snip]
But a Republican electorate increasingly composed of working-class white voters who suffer disproportionately from stagnant wages and dim prospects appears to have lost faith in party leaders more interested in pursuing high-end income tax cuts and immigration reform. Given the political and economic climate, history offers an intriguing framework for what could happen next.
In 1955 the famed political scientist V.O. Key published “A Theory of Critical Elections,” an article popularizing the idea that certain elections in American history were more meaningful than the rest because “the decisive results of the voting reveal a sharp alteration of the pre-existing cleavage within the electorate.” This became known as realignment theory. Realigning elections, Key believed, create “sharp and durable” changes in the polity that can last for decades.
American historians generally see five or six elections as realigning: 1800, when Thomas Jefferson’s victory crippled the Federalist Party and shifted power from the North to the South; 1828, when Andrew Jackson’s win gave rise to the two-party system and two decades of Democratic control; 1860, when Abraham Lincoln’s election marked the ascendancy of the Republican Party and the secessionist forces that led to the Civil War; 1896, when William McKinley and a new urban political order were swept into power by a depression and industrialization; and 1932, during the Great Depression, when Franklin Roosevelt’s triumph marked the beginning of three decades of Democratic dominance. Some historians argue that Ronald Reagan’s 1980 victory, primed by the stagflation of the 1970s, was also realigning. [snip]
Both of the necessary preconditions for a realignment are present. The Great Recession of 2007-09 supplied the catalytic societal trauma: Pew Research Center data show Republican anger at Washington spiked before the 2010 election and has never fallen. And no one who’s turned on a television or attended a Republican rally can doubt for a minute that attachment to party leaders is at a low ebb.
Big “realignment” elections are rare. 2016 might be a big one. Obama destroyed the Democratic Party of FDR. The voters of the now defunct party are looking for a home. If Trump is the Republican nominee in 2016, as appears likely, be prepared to hear the word “realignment” in places other than here.
Saturday’s GOP debate has pretty much confirmed that Donald J. Trump will win the Granite State. After that victory, there will be another victory in South Carolina. After that victory piled on victory, the Super Tuesday victories throughout the South, loom.
Donald J. Trump will win in New Hampshire after the tainted loss in Iowa. For the working class, after so many losses economically and culturally, they won’t be tired of winning. The working class will cheer as win after win is scored.
The working class will applaud their working class hero, Donald J. Trump, billionaire.
February 6th, 2016
Update: Open thread: Brace for impact. The New Hampshire GOP debate. 8:00 ET. The “Live Free Or Die” state is now the “Do or Die” state.
The “year of the monkey“, on Monday. That dull football Superbowl on Sunday. Bernie Sanders on Saturday Night Live. Screw all that. Tonight is our Superbowl!!!
We know next to nothing about sports. We know less about football, American style, and wouldn’t mind knowing even less than that. But we do know that in football there are two teams and both teams develop an offensive strategy and a defensive strategy to achieve their tactical aims, taking into account the strengths and weaknesses of the respective players and
generals coaches directing the armies teams, and succeed in the strategic aim, which is to score and win.
Football, we suspect, is like a military campaign in which the goal is to drop the bomb in the other team’s most closely guarded spot. It’s like ice hockey without the ice. It’s like a chess game in which the goal is to kill the most closely guarded player – the king. In other words, football at its best is a weak, silly, insignificant, diversion, which pales in comparison to the death match brutality of politics.
Tonight, the remaining GOP candidates for president, meet, in New Hampshire, in advance of Tuesday’s first in the nation primary election, and battle with verbal swords, to the death. The serious issues the nation faces should be paramount but they will also be weapons in this joust. There will be blood.
Tonight is very important because it is the last big chance the candidates have to sway the New Hampshire electorate. Unless you are a voter or candidate (or unfortunately in Big Media) your influence is relatively small. So, once again, we ask you put aside your personal preference for a candidate, and play strategist. What would you do?
Assume you are on team Donald J. Trump. What would you do? Attack Ted Cruz even though you pretty much have inflicted all the damage on him that is profitable at this point and more attacks only lead to Malthusian diminishing returns knowing Ben Carson will do that particular job – or attack the rising-in-the-polls second place or third place Rubio, or attack one of the other losers, er candidates, or play nice, discuss only the issues, and try to win the Nobel Peace Prize you have just been nominated for? What would you do?
Assume you are on team Marco Rubio. What would you do? Pretend to be very nice, tout endorsements, and hope niceness deflects or weakens potential incoming attacks and thereby, with a defensive strategy, try to continue to rise to a firm second place, and secretly hope to rise to first place? Or, attack first? Attack Cruz again? Or leave that to Ben Carson? Attack Jeb, knowing Christie will come to his defense? Attack Barbara Bush? What would you do?
Assume you are on team Ted Cruz. What would you do? Attack Trump knowing he will hit back hard but since you know you will lose New Hampshire anyway the goal would be to prevent Trump from winning New Hampshire with an infuriating series of attacks in order to finish off Trump in New Hampshire so that you can move on to South Carolina without Trump in the race and therefore you can consolidate the “outsider” vote? Or attack Rubio in order to come in second and continue to pose a problem for Trump as well as smash Rubio’s 3-2-1 strategy? Or attack one of the other, er, candidates, denounce them as “establishment” and burnish your appeal to South Carolina? What would you do?
Assume you are on team John Kasich. What would you do? Attack Trump knowing he has bested you before? Attack Rubio who stands in your way to the silver position? Or attack Cruz for the same reasons? Or attack one of the other candidates for whom New Hampshire is the “do or die” state? For Governor Kasich it is do or die in New Hampshire and tonight is his last chance to buckeye the odds. What would you do?
Assume you are on team Jeb Bush. What would you do? Prepare a smart answer for when Trump declares that “your mother has more energy than you do Jeb”? Attack Trump as the number one target? Attack Rubio, along with your ally Chris Christie, and bring down that weasel? Attack one of the other candidates for whom New Hampshire is “do or die” or attack Ted Cruz even though Ben Carson has a better case to make against Cruz? Continue poking the mighty bull, Donald Trump, and get the horns again? Or attack your ally Chris Christie because, well, Christie blocks your way too. What would you do?
Assume you are on team Chris Christie. What would you do? Understand that Trump is likely to win New Hampshire and that Rubio is the one that should lead the anti-Trump battle tonight? Would you concentrate all your attacks on that high-heeled bubble boy weasel from Florida? Stand with Jeb if Jeb is attacked or keep your mouth shut and watch Jeb suffer as the life leaves his limp body? Attack Kasich? Attack Cruz? Get on the floor and roll all over every other candidate, squashing them all to death? What would you do?
That last Dem debate on repulsive MSNBC got few eyeballs to turn in. Tonight’s bloodbath is on the ABC network so not only will the interest be high so will the availability of the broadcast. The debate tonight is at 8:00 p.m. ET. Eight O’Clock.
Tonight through Tuesday, New Hampshire is not the “Live Free Or Die” state. Tonight through Tuesday, New Hampshire is the “do or die” state for GOP presidential candidates.
We’ll be in our little pink boat tonight on the scarlet seas making snide comments and doing what we can with a play by play unofficial transcript.
We’ll recover tomorrow from tonight’s bloodbath. Tomorrow, we’ll forgo the tedious football Superbowl. We’ll watch the high tension drama of the Puppy Bowl instead.
February 4th, 2016
We feel like punching Hillary Clinton in the face, kicking her shins, and pushing her down a flight of stairs. We blame tonight entirely on dumbass Hillary. Hillary is to blame for tonight.
Do not, anybody, do not expect us to defend Hillary. Tonight is unforgivable. The blame is entirely on Hillary.
We thought we would never tune into MSNBC again ever in our lives. In 2008 Hillary and Hillary supporters were attacked by the pigs on MSNBC. We declared Hillary should never have anything to do with MSNBC or NBC.
In 2008 MSNBC’s Olbermann suggested Hillary be taken out with a severe beating. The rest of the MSNBC pigs were just as bad. We swore never to watch MSNBC ever again. We’ve been true to our word.
Now, here we are tonight, forced to listen to Jabba the Hut Chris Mattheeews, Chris O’Tingles up the leg for Obama, Chris Spittles. And we blame you Hillary Clinton.
Tonight Hillary is entirely to blame. When she gets hit in the face by pig Chuck Todd and pig Rachel Maddow we will remain silent and hope quietly the MSNBC pigs humiliate and hurt Hillary as badly as possible so that Hillary will learn never to go on MSNBC ever again. What is wrong with this woman that she does these things that demonstrate she has no self-respect?
Hillary2016 “negotiated” tonight. Hillary wanted a debate in New Hampshire before the NH vote. We were prepared to declare Hillary the winner by dint of the debate being held. Because she is far behind the socialist Saint Bernard we figured anything that got her the opportunity to take votes away from Bernie Sanders was a big plus for her. Then we discovered Hillary2016 “negotiated” to be on MSNBC. We exploded in rage.
We are sure any broadcaster, cable outlet, camcorder, person with a camera, theater owner, anybody just anybody, the networks for Pete’s sake, anybody would have been happy to host tonight’s debate. But Hillary2016 agreed, after negotiations to go on MSNBC.
Real smart idiots at Hillary2016. The pigs at MSNBC love Bernie Sanders so that is where the Hillary team negotiates to send her. Unbelievable.
Tonight when Maddow and Todd (and by the way because of Hillary we’ve been subjected to seeing Brian Williams too and that Melissa Harris-Perry pig too!) hit Hillary with Goldman Sachs questions and every nasty question that helps Bernie Sanders and hurts Hillary we will relive 2008 and we will just get angrier – with Hillary. Yeah, we’re pissed.
February 3rd, 2016
Strategy now? Trump needs to finish off Cruz; Cruz needs to finish off Trump; Rubio needs to wiggle through the Trump v. Cruz fight and help himself to second place.
Ted Cruz’s strategy was always to be nice to Trump in order to get Trump voters once Trump collapsed. Rubio has a 3-2-1 strategy of third place in Iowa, second place in New Hampshire, first place in South Carolina. Trump’s strategy has been to make himself the sole candidate of change with the toughest personality and policies.
We have the first post Iowa poll from New Hampshire. All that matters now is New Hampshire. Before Iowa we wrote only Iowa mattered. Now only New Hampshire matters. Has Iowa shaken New Hampshire poll numbers? We would not have been surprised if Trump lost ten points and Cruz/Rubio gained five points apiece. Did that happen? No:
Donald Trump is still in first place, but he’s frozen at 38%. Ted Cruz is second with 14%. Marcio Rubio is third with 12%. Jeb Bush has 9% and John Kasich has 7%.
Rounding out the Republicans: Chris Christie with 6%; Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina with 3% each and Rand Paul with 2%. 6% of voters still remain undecided. [snip]
Sanders gets 61% in our poll and Clinton gets 32%. Only 5% of voters remain undecided.
Iowa did perform its role: Santorum is out. Rand Paul is out. Huckabee is out. (O’Malley on the Dem side is out too.) As to the NH poll results, Trump neither gained nor lost; Cruz rose 2; Rubio rose 4; Kasich down 2; Bush unchanged; Christie/Carson down 1 each; Fiorina up one.
Who is best positioned in regards to their strategy goal? Obviously, Trump. If Trump wins NH he has a great chance of victory in the must win state for everybody: South Carolina. Trump has been well ahead in South Carolina and a victory in New Hampshire should guarantee a double digit victory for Trump. Trump sharply made his first post Iowa speech a showcase for the Scott Brown endorsement. And if you’re wondering why Trump is tackling Cruz so strongly on the Cruz Iowa stunts – it’s because Trump wants the Ben Carson supporters when Ben Carson drops out.
Rubio? Rubio will try to wiggle himself up the pole while Trump and Cruz squabble. But Trump can afford to ignore Rubio right now as long as Trump wins and Cruz is seen as a one state wonder. Rubio wants to come in second in NH in order to get momentum for South Carolina. But a Trump double digit victory (or a 20 point victory) will be the momentum getter and Rubio will not get his much needed momentum. If Rubio loses South Carolina, his 3-2-1 strategy is in tatters and then Rubio faces destruction in his home state. Trump pre-Iowa led Florida in double digits too Rubio today got the kiss of death endorsement from Sweaters Santorum, our least favorite candidate this year as in every year. On the plus side Rubio is now the establishment pick and his money woes should be over. The only remaining question mark for Rubio is whether Jeb Bush decides to attack Rubio or not. Bush appears to be holding steady in NH so Rubio cannot be happy.
As to Cruz, he’s in a death match against Trump in a state very friendly to Trump. Simply put, Cruz is in the wrong battlefield. Cruz should move on to South Carolina and leave Trump to beat up on Rubio in NH. But Cruz probably realizes Trump would only use a Cruz departure to continue to beat up on Cruz, not be distracted by Rubio. That’s why Cruz tries a #Trumpertantrump crusade – it’s all he’s got.
Once Trump dispatches Cruz in New Hampshire, he will turn his attention to Marco Rubio and illegal immigration amnesty. It won’t be pretty for Rubio, the one Chris Christie has dubbed the “bubble boy”.
As to Hillary v. Sanders? Sanders will decisively win in New Hampshire. The problem for Hillary is not Bernie Sanders. Hillary’s problem is a “when” problem:
Hillary however faces a very difficult “when” problem now. The Dims do not have winner take all. So if Hillary wins 60% of the vote in the southern primaries and less in the mountain states where Sanders should do better, when does Hillary win?
Without winner take all primary victories to settle the nomination quickly, Hillary has a much longer “when” horizon than Trump, if he is the eventual nominee.
After yesterday, Hillary has a big “when” problem because although Bernie did not get his “must win” in Iowa the Sanders’ troops do not feel defeated… yet. Hillary will have to bring down the margin in New Hampshire to single digits and deprive Sanders of a ten point or more victory which will fuel his troops with desire for more battle.
Tonight, Hillary and Sanders will engage in a CNN gab-a-thon without the waste of time Baltimore O’Malley. On Saturday the Republicans will have a debate in the style of a medieval tournament with blood splashing all over the place. New Hampshire voters will watch, and we will all have to wait for New Hampshire to decide.